Vietnam’s economy is projected to grow by 6.55-6.95% this year, as detailed in a July 9 report from the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) with backing from the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) on behalf of the German Government. This forecast was shared during a workshop reviewing Vietnam’s economic performance in the first half of the year and prospects for the remainder of 2024.
Under the first scenario, the GDP growth is expected to be 6.55%, with exports rising by 9.54% compared to 2023. The average consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by 4.31% year-on-year, and the trade balance is anticipated to maintain a surplus of 5.7 billion USD.
In the second, more optimistic scenario, economic growth is forecasted to reach 6.95%, with export growth at 11.64%, CPI increasing by 4.12%, and the trade surplus growing to 7.3 billion USD.
The first scenario assumes that global economic conditions will remain consistent with current international assessments and that Vietnam will maintain its policy efforts from the first half of 2024. The second scenario envisions more favorable global economic conditions, including a faster recovery, increased investor interest in Southeast Asia, restoration of supply chains, and positive developments in digital transformation and green transition investments.
In the optimistic scenario, Vietnam is expected to effectively implement economic reforms and management measures, yielding the best outcomes in public investment disbursement, credit management, labor productivity growth, business environment improvement, and national competitiveness enhancement.
CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh highlighted that since the start of 2024, Vietnam has prioritized boosting economic growth by stabilizing the macro-economy, curbing inflation, and ensuring major economic balances.
In the first half of the year, Vietnam’s economic growth was 6.42%, exports expanded by 14.5%, and inflation was kept under control.
To meet the year-end goals, CIEM recommended enhancing the quality of growth, increasing innovation capacity, adapting to major trends like digital transformation and green transition, boosting labor productivity, and perfecting the legal framework for new economic models such as the circular economy, digital economy, sharing economy, and creative economy.
Additionally, the government needs to implement appropriate macroeconomic policy management solutions, closely monitor inflation developments, and maintain fiscal flexibility to effectively respond to future economic shocks.
Source: VietnamPlus