In July 2025, economic relations between the United States and Thailand entered a critical phase following the Trump administration’s announcement of a 36% tariff on all Thai imports, effective from August 1.
This decision is part of a broader American strategy aimed at rebalancing the trade deficit with major Southeast Asian economies. In this context, Thailand has come under particular scrutiny: in 2024, it recorded a $46 billion trade surplus with the US, and exports grew by 15% in the first five months of 2025.
Bangkok’s Diplomatic Response
To avoid the imposition of the tariff, the Thai government acted promptly by opening a dialogue with Washington. On July 16, a formal videoconference was held between the Thai Minister of Finance and the US Trade Representative. During the meeting, the Thai delegation submitted a multi-pronged trade proposal, including:
• Elimination of tariffs on thousands of US products, including key agricultural goods;
• Reduction of import duties on US goods to a target level of 10%;
• Removal of non-tariff barriers through the adoption of international standards;
• Increased imports from the US, particularly in the agriculture, energy, and aerospace sectors.
With this proposal, Bangkok aims to strengthen bilateral relations and position itself as a reliable trade partner in a highly competitive region.
Risks and Contingency Measures
The Thai government has also prepared contingency plans in case negotiations do not yield a favorable outcome. Two main scenarios have been considered:
• Worst case: full implementation of the 36% tariff, with severe impacts on key export sectors;
• Intermediate scenario: introduction of a 20% tariff, similar to that currently applied to Vietnam.
The planned measures include financial support for affected exporters, incentives for market diversification, and fiscal tools to mitigate the impact on domestic supply chains.
Regional Competition and Pressure
A comparison with other ASEAN countries highlights the pressure on Thailand to remain competitive:
• Indonesia negotiated a reduction from 32% to 19%, linked to a package of American aircraft purchases;
• Vietnam faces a 20% tariff but remains in ongoing negotiations;
• Malaysia is subject to a 25% tariff;
• The Philippines saw its rate increase from 17% to 20%.
Reaching an agreement with the US would help Thailand safeguard its regional competitiveness, particularly in sectors such as automotive, electronics, food, and textiles.
Opportunities for Europe
The potential deterioration of US–Thailand trade relations creates meaningful opportunities for the European Union. To offset potential losses in the American market, Bangkok may seek to diversify its trade partnerships — and the EU is well positioned to respond.
Europe’s key strengths include:
• Regulatory stability and long-term reliability;
• High-quality products, particularly in the agri-food, pharmaceutical, technology, and automotive sectors;
• Expansion potential for European companies already operating in or entering the ASEAN region.
At the same time, European firms with manufacturing bases in Thailand may revisit their value chain strategies to gain easier access to regional and Chinese markets while bypassing US trade barriers.
The Thai-Italian Chamber of Commerce acts as a strategic bridge between Thai and European businesses, supporting new partnerships through trade missions, B2B events, and advisory services.